Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) fair value

From the Sep 29, 2026 report · Read the full report

Estimated fair value: $26.26; Two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF)
Current price: $353.60
Upside: -92.6%; Trades above the estimated value

Assumptions

Base free cash flow: 5.76B (trailing 12 months)
Growth, years 1-5: 13.8% (analysts' revenue estimate for next year)
Terminal growth: 2.5%
Discount rate: 14.5% = U.S. 10-year yield (5.2%) + beta 1.85 × risk premium 5.0%
Cash minus debt: 27.44B
Shares: 3.95B

Value per share sensitivity

Rows: discount rate. Columns: terminal growth. The centre cell is the base case.

	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
13.5%	$27.49	$28.15	$28.89
14.5%	$25.72	$26.26	$26.85
15.5%	$24.22	$24.66	$25.15

This is a model estimate with fixed assumptions, not a price forecast or a recommendation. Changing one assumption moves the result a lot: see the sensitivity table.

Frequently asked questions

Is TSLA undervalued?

Our model puts the fair value of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) at $26.26 per share, against a price of $353.60 (-92.6%). It is an estimate with fixed assumptions, not a forecast.

Data as of Sep 29, 2026. Sources: Yahoo Finance (prices, financial statements and analysts' estimates) and the U.S. Treasury (10-year yield). Indicators and valuation are computed without AI.

AI-generated informational content. Not financial advice or a personalised investment recommendation. Investing involves risk, including loss of capital.

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